dontfeartheringo wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 10:35 am

cakes wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 9:40 am

dontfeartheringo wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 6:31 am AI was supposed to be writing all the code by now.

I can tell you as a professional software engineer that I don't think anyone thought AI would be writing all the code by now.

I know that. You know that. BUT, do you know who has been told EXACTLY the 180 degree opposite of that? (Many of whom believed it, whole hog, btw)

Investors. Millions of them.

C-Suite idiots who couldn't "Hello World!" a breakfast menu.

They've been told (and they believed) that by now, AI would be writing ALL the code, and that we could fire all the devs and the devops guys, and AI would be driving cargo ships and trucks and trains and the tech industry would be moving into the Pure Profit Era.

So, if you've ever shorted a stock, now's the time, because the Emperor's New Codewriter is about to be shown for the farce that it is.

twelvepoint wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:10 pm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

cakes wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 11:31 am I guess it's just more proof that investors are actually kinda dumb. Anyone remember that juicer that could only juice a packet that had juice in it, and not actually juice any fruit?

dontfeartheringo wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 6:31 am

cakes wrote: Fri Aug 08, 2025 3:10 pm

dontfeartheringo wrote: Fri Aug 08, 2025 9:53 am The bigger companies that churn more code are starting to realize that the promised "Golden Age of Using AI to Write Code And/Or South Asian Outsourcing So We Can Fire People Who Need More Than .000043% of Our Glorious CEO's Salary to Survive" was all smoke and mirrors and they're scrambling.

I love this for them.

Can you elaborate?

AI was supposed to be writing all the code by now. Every time I ask it any kind of technical question (beyond basic tech support) I get three wrong answers before I give up. At the very beginning, software developers had a phrase "Garbage In, Garbage Out." That hasn't changed.

The professional managerial class was expecting to be able to lay off all the code writers and developers by now. AI in the software development world has been profoundly overhyped. The supposed Golden Age I was talking about before was a time when software development costs could be reduced to the cost of electricity as opposed to actually paying people to write code.

There is no Magic Typewriter. You still need really smart people to write software. A lot of people are holding big bags of magic beans, which is why they're trying to shoehorn ai into everything from your weather report to your smart toaster.

It's a solution to a problem that nobody has. Nobody asked for AI in their workout app or movie listings. But by God, we've sunk a trillion dollars into it, so you're getting it in your word processor program.

jfv wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:56 pm

twelvepoint wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:10 pm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

Have also heard it referred to as the Dunning-Kruger effect/curve.

https://understandinginnovation.blog/20 ... nnovation/

twelvepoint wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 2:59 pm

jfv wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:56 pm

twelvepoint wrote: Mon Aug 11, 2025 12:10 pm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

Have also heard it referred to as the Dunning-Kruger effect/curve.

https://understandinginnovation.blog/20 ... nnovation/

It’s also probably far from 100% accurate but my career is long enough that I’ve seen a lot of hype cycles that I am neither surprised by the blowback, but also realize AI is here to stay.

It’s a particularly awful time right now is the US because all guardrails have been removed from the worst abuses of capitalism and of course the AI bubble is being used as a cudgel against labor, so all of this is super confusing and awful.

wsj wrote:More companies are holding on to older leaders or passing over a generation in search of the next ones
Callum Borchers

July 29, 2025

When it comes to the C-suite, Gen X might be doomed to live up to its “forgotten generation” moniker. More baby boomers are working past traditional retirement ages. By the time they are ready to pass the torch, millennials will be reaching for it.

This is already happening at more companies. In the Russell 3000, 41.5% of chief executives are at least 60 years old, up from 35.1% in 2017. Over the same period, the share of CEOs in their 30s and 40s has grown to 15.1% from 13.8%, according to research by the Conference Board and ESGAUGE.

That leaves Gen Xers, typically defined as those born between 1965 and 1980, with fewer chances to lead. People in their 50s held 51.1% of CEO seats eight years ago. Now they occupy 43.4%.

Many Gen Xers say they operated on the belief that if they paid their dues, their time would come. But as they enter what is usually the prime, C-suite career stage, more businesses are retaining their aging leaders or skipping a generation in search of the next ones.

“We’re starting to see a barbell phenomenon in the CEO role where Gen X is being squeezed in the middle,” says Matteo Tonello, head of benchmarking and analytics at the Conference Board.

Maybe it’s fitting that workers dubbed “slackers” in their youth would reach the top less often, though Tonello says companies don’t necessarily lack faith in Gen Xers. Their predicament is largely a result of bad timing.

Facing a pandemic, recession and supply-chain problems in recent years, companies prized boomers’ experience. Now some are turning to millennials to navigate the advent of artificial intelligence. Gen Xers, especially those about to turn 60, might have missed their moment.

Set up for disappointment
The cruel thing is a lot of Xers don’t realize they are headed for dead ends.

“A type of person I come across in my business all the time is the executive-in-waiting,” says Shawn Cole, president of Cowen Partners Executive Search. “They assume when their boss retires, they’re going to get the seat. A lot of folks are going to be disappointed.”

The most vulnerable people are those sandwiched between leaders on the young side of the boomer cohort and hard-charging older millennials.

Say you’re a 55-year-old lieutenant with a protégé who is 44 and a CEO who is 63. If the boss hangs on for five more years, the board will be tempted to go with the younger option.

One bright spot for Gen X executives whose windows are closing: Private-equity backed companies remain eager to hire them, says Bo Burch, CEO of Human Capital Solutions. A private-equity firm hoping to exit an investment in three to five years generally wants a veteran manager for a short stint. A 50-something often fits that bill.

But in other settings, Gen Xers frequently get stuck in No. 2 roles. They have to fight to be seen as transformational figures by boards that want rising stars with big ideas for the next decade.

“There’s a bias toward younger, future-fit leadership branding—even if Gen X has the real substance,” Burch says.

The case for Xers
Brian Buckalew has spent his entire, 34-year career at Majestic Steel USA, whose baby-boomer founder was succeeded as CEO by his millennial son. Buckalew, 56, has been a road warrior for decades, traveling from his home in Georgia to meet with customers. Though he has risen from sales assistant to vice president of strategic sales, he has sometimes felt overlooked.

“I struggled with it until recently,” he says. “Why wasn’t I chosen for this, or why wasn’t I chosen for that?”

He says Gen Xers are often viewed more as tacticians than visionaries. He notes Americans have never elected a Gen X president and doubts they ever will.

Boomers have won eight of the past nine elections. (Joe Biden is part of the pre-baby boom silent generation.) And 2028 betting favorites mostly revolve around several millennials.

Buckalew says he has come to appreciate having time for hobbies he might be forced to sacrifice if he climbed higher. It helps that he considers his millennial boss deserving of the post.

Still, Buckalew, who grew up going home to an empty house after school, says Gen Xers’ ability to figure things out on their own is underappreciated.

The “latchkey generation”—so nicknamed because its childhood coincided with a surge of women in the workforce—doesn’t require hand-holding. This comfort working without guidance is arguably more valuable amid AI uncertainty than having been raised on the internet, says Megan Gerhardt, founder of Gentelligence, which advises companies on managing multigenerational teams.

If AI is the biggest workplace disruption since the internet, then Gen Xers who survived the previous big shift can be a steadying presence now, she contends.

“It’s this attitude of, ‘Well, I figured that out, so I can figure this out too,’ ” says Gerhardt, who is also a management professor at Miami University in Ohio and, yes, a Gen Xer.

That sounds like a decent pitch for any would-be executive whose demographic reality bites.

washington post wrote:In Hal Hartley’s 1991 short film “Theory of Achievement,” about a group of white, young, middle-class, college-educated people living in a less gentrified part of Brooklyn, a character asks another what he does for a living. “Work I don’t like” he replies, “to pay the rent.” But, he says, “I want to write songs. Love songs. Really beautiful timeless love songs. And I can’t sing and I don’t know music.”

They go on to argue about whether they’re artists or sellouts. “I’m a writer,” one says. “No, you’re not,” another replies. “You’re a low-rent real estate agent, and you’re bad at your job.”

“I’m bad at my job on purpose,” the would-be writer replies. “If I was any better at it, I might become what I do for a living.”