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Who even needs tubes when we have plug ins?

There is a phone and email on the Western Electric site for anyone who would like to inquire:
https://www.westernelectric.com/contact

As they are right now soliciting feedback about expansion, and they are actively producing tubes in the US, why not just ask someone there? Or better yet, invite them to participate here!

Garth wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:49 amAnyway, I hope for the audio world that Western Electric or someone takes up this call. I'm not a person who is profit-driven but businesses are and as Steve stated, money is being left on the table for someone who can figure this out.

I don’t think it’s about figuring it out as much as it’s about making it worthwhile. It would almost certainly have to be a labor of love from someone with millions to burn.

twelvepoint wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 10:49 am There is a phone and email on the Western Electric site for anyone who would like to inquire:
https://www.westernelectric.com/contact

As they are right now soliciting feedback about expansion, and they are actively producing tubes in the US, why not just ask someone there? Or better yet, invite them to participate here!

apologies - I didn't see the FM Steve already did exactly this!

Garth wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:49 am With things like 3d printing I would think the world should be close to having what would be needed for a small place to be able to create a few and go?

Unfortunately 3D printing hasn't panned out to be the nuclear fusion of manufacturing that the media creamed about for years. It has it's place and boy are the results good these days, but it's not going to help tube making much. I really hate media coverage of manufacturing. It hurts my engineerio

TylerDeadPine wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:11 pm

Garth wrote: Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:49 am With things like 3d printing I would think the world should be close to having what would be needed for a small place to be able to create a few and go?

Unfortunately 3D printing hasn't panned out to be the nuclear fusion of manufacturing that the media creamed about for years. It has it's place and boy are the results good these days, but it's not going to help tube making much. I really hate media coverage of manufacturing. It hurts my engineerio

quote-post from the Interesting Gear Developments Thread as the points in this interview describe more of that I was referring to as a layman and not 3d-printing specifically:

scott wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 11:39 am An update on Western Electric

https://guitar.com/features/interviews/ ... ry-crisis/

I unfortunately meant "3d-printing" as more of a catch-all to encompass the huge overall advancements in mfg tech. I realize that is wildly imprecise and apologize for it because I could see how that'd be completely aggravating to an engineer.

Anyway specifically mentioned in the article:

"There’s a long list of things we’ve been able to modernise across our current 300B operation. Robotics, automation, and laser-welding, to name a few. We also take advantage of higher purity materials previously unavailable in the heyday of tube manufacturing."

Seriously, everything stated in this article sounds very reassuring and exciting and I wish the best for them. Hope to see these on shelves soon.

Just my hot take, but I feel like the actual demand for tubes is being wildly overestimated.

Let's adjust our perspective to consider when tubes were last being produced at mass scale in North America.
Demand for tubes then, may be comparable to the current demand for 5nm semiconductors.
From that perspective, there is virtually no demand for tube manufacturing at present time.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's wonderful that Western Electric are interested and gauging whether it's a viable business move to fill this production gap.
Sadly, I don't think they will find it viable, and in going for it anyway, I think quality will be poor and it will be absolutely cost prohibitive to the consumer.

brownreasontolive wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:58 am Just my hot take, but I feel like the actual demand for tubes is being wildly overestimated.

Let's adjust our perspective to consider when tubes were last being produced at mass scale in North America.
Demand for tubes then, may be comparable to the current demand for 5nm semiconductors.
From that perspective, there is virtually no demand for tube manufacturing at present time.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's wonderful that Western Electric are interested and gauging whether it's a viable business move to fill this production gap.
Sadly, I don't think they will find it viable, and in going for it anyway, I think quality will be poor and it will be absolutely cost prohibitive to the consumer.

Tube amps are still the default for guitar (not including beginner kits of course) w/ thousands made every year - and there are MILLIONS of amps already made that will eventually need theirs replaced, so there is absolutely no shortage of demand. EDIT: also the hi-fi/audiophile market now seems to be highly-invested in tube tech as well and a lot of those use the same power/pre tubes as guitar amps. Further, it's been widely-reported that JJ Tesla tubes were back-ordered 6-8 months BEFORE the invasion. So I don't think demand is an issue at all. Clearly not what it was when TVs and radios needed them but still there for sure.

What I cannot speak to though is that if it will end up being a profitable endeavor for WE to produce them domestically & at a high-quality. The interview cited above leaves me feeling pretty optimistic about the last part of that sentence at least.

[double post]

brownreasontolive wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:58 am Just my hot take, but I feel like the actual demand for tubes is being wildly overestimated.

Let's adjust our perspective to consider when tubes were last being produced at mass scale in North America.
Demand for tubes then, may be comparable to the current demand for 5nm semiconductors.
From that perspective, there is virtually no demand for tube manufacturing at present time.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's wonderful that Western Electric are interested and gauging whether it's a viable business move to fill this production gap.
Sadly, I don't think they will find it viable, and in going for it anyway, I think quality will be poor and it will be absolutely cost prohibitive to the consumer.

Yeah, the reality is probably more of a bummer, but it's much nicer to think and talk about the alternative. Here's some lunchtime thinking (not concrete industry numbers):

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-relea ... 2022-01-04
"The global Guitar Amplifier market was valued at USD 119.7 million in 2019 and it is expected to reach USD 125.8 million by the end of 2026, growing at a CAGR of 0.7% during 2021-2026."

It's not a giant market - if we give tube amps %10 of the market dollar amount which I would say is pretty generous, that's only $12m, with only ~600k units sold. Let's make it generous and say that 200k tube amps were sold.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/448 ... in-the-us/, that's an average cost of $500 consumer, probably $300 cost, tubes would make up maybe, estimate:
- 12ax7 x 3, 6L6x2
- $7/12ax7
- $15/6L6

- so if we said that $50 of that amp was tubes, that's $10m for the entire possible market. Nevermind your costs. For a single small company, if there are zero competitors.. Sure that might be worth it to go after - if you can ramp up to 600k 12ax7s a year from nothing. I could see spending a couple million just on that - but an ROI of a 1-2 years.. that's not out of the question, but it's a risk, sure.