Gramsci wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 7:02 am Americans. Any clue how the military are reacting to all of this? I’d assume there are pro and anti Trump factions vying for influence. But who Trump overreach create a military refusal to implement?

As far as I can see/hear, it's crickets. The military is not really *allowed to speak about political things.

*I'm not sure exactly what I mean by "allowed." But I can say I never hear/see anyone in active duty say anything overtly political.

Yes. As an outsider the US military seems broadly to do what they’re told. What interests me is how does that social contract evolve when the commander in chief is making crazy decisions that impact negatively on the state’s very long term and broader strategic goals.

Could a general or even wing of the armed forces refuse or push back against a batshit order.

This is not really anything controversial. Generals in the military should not and cannot express their political views. It's really prohibited all around the world too. At least here too.

There was an incident here 20 or so years ago, where 10 plus generals voiced their political affiliation after the presidential elections, and they were all replaced in a heart beat. As it should be.

Gramsci wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 9:54 am Yes. As an outsider the US military seems broadly to do what they’re told. What interests me is how does that social contract evolve when the commander in chief is making crazy decisions that impact negatively on the state’s very long term and broader strategic goals.

Could a general or even wing of the armed forces refuse or push back against a batshit order.

It's hard to tell, because the military will just do a half-assed job with certain things to appease. It seems there's been a lot of purging and resignations, so it's not clear where the military is... They got rid of all the JAGs and people with legal reasoning, and we're bombing civilians in the carribbean and stealing world leaders, opening ourselves up to international war crimes. So, if there's a line the military won't cross, we have no idea what it is. They already put boots on the ground in LA. At the time, it was just around federal buildings, but since ICE can now shoot people in the head without consequence and Trump thinks being upset about it is equal to an insurrection, we have no fucking clue.

If there is a push back from the military, then it's a coup and then all bets are off. Might as well start a civil war 2.

Lu Zwei wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 10:03 am If there is a push back from the military, then it's a coup and then all bets are off. Might as well start a civil war 2.

There's already a coup. It's just happening slowly in real time. If we actually get mid-term elections, and they do not favor Trump, and they are sworn in, the coup will probably fail in the end. If the mid-terms are attempted to be fucked with, the coup is out in the open and there will be chaos in some form, most likely protests and killing of civilians, the coup will continue. Ultimately, I think it fails, regardless of how much damage it does to the country before then.

There's some cracks in the GOP, we're seeing waning support of the administration both in congress and the public. If he's going to do this, he's not going to be successful and a lot of people are going to get killed or jailed because of it. He may be successful for a little bit, but this is not a long term plan and once he's dead, it's not clear what will happen with MAGA. The oligarchs want feudalism, also not a long term solution. The Christian nationalists want a theocracy, which is also not a long term solution. If we're all broke and working slave wages and shut out from global trade, no one's going to be making any money, not even billionaires. Given time, that would lead to a revolution, as it always does.

Gramsci wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 9:54 am Yes. As an outsider the US military seems broadly to do what they’re told. What interests me is how does that social contract evolve when the commander in chief is making crazy decisions that impact negatively on the state’s very long term and broader strategic goals.

Could a general or even wing of the armed forces refuse or push back against a batshit order.

Batshit, obviously not. Illegal, yes.

It should be pretty clear that the administraton is by design testing the limits of "legality."

cakes wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 10:11 amThere's some cracks in the GOP, we're seeing waning support of the administration both in congress and the public.

I’m really, really skeptical that there are meaningful cracks in the GOP in congress. There were only a small number of mutineers on the Epstein files, and one of them is retiring. In fact, that seems to be the overall trend: the Republican senators and representatives who *could* or even *want to* put up a fight all quit instead.

Otherwise, they all fold like laundry. That happened just yesterday, in fact! Josh Hawley (a creep and coward, as we all already knew) withdrew his support for a congressional check on Trump’s war powers after he got “assurances” from the White House.

“Assurances” is all it takes. It’s not just that they fold, it’s that they WANT to fold.

I strongly suspect that most of the critics (though maybe not all) will also fold on the Fed Reserve interference.

Lu Zwei wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 10:03 am If there is a push back from the military, then it's a coup and then all bets are off. Might as well start a civil war 2.

CIVWAR2: America began months ago.

Wood Goblin wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 10:23 am

cakes wrote: Thu Jan 15, 2026 10:11 amThere's some cracks in the GOP, we're seeing waning support of the administration both in congress and the public.

I’m really, really skeptical that there are meaningful cracks in the GOP in congress. There were only a small number of mutineers on the Epstein files, and one of them is retiring. In fact, that seems to be the overall trend: the Republican senators and representatives who *could* or even *want to* put up a fight all quit instead.

Yes, see MTG. Her whole failed redemption tour was predicated on losing Trumps support. They cut her out of the clique. Most of the other cowards saw that and will behave as spinelessly as they always have, or their masks are well and truly off.